How Much Do I Bet?
By: Jim Wampol
Most poker players are more concerned with how to play specific hands and when to play what hands. Granted it’s all important. But the most common mistake I see, while playing in small No Limit Hold’em games, is the amount being bet. I have actually had people say I was afraid to bet more because he might fold. This is the wrong attitude unless you hold the nuts. The whole idea is to bet enough to mess up your opponents odds to call. In this case your opponent would be right to fold. If you bet too little you give correct odds and your opponent should call. We discussed calculating odds in last month’s edition of ROUNDERS.
The question was, “How much do I bet?” The answer is, it depends. Specifically, you bet enough to make your opponent make the wrong decision if he calls. If your opponent folds, then so be it. Be perfectly content to drag the pot. There’s and old saying “it’s better to win a small pot than loose a large one.” If you get greedy and bet small you allow you opponent to out draw you. I personally think the mixture of opponents also affects what amount to bet. For instance, let’s say the game you’re in consists of all amateurs and they’re not very informed in correct play. In this case all my bets would be on the high side. The reason for this is most inexperienced players don’t understand odds therefore they will call larger bets chasing flushes and straights. You simply will make more money by doing this. Now consider the alternative table. Let’s say a table full of good solid players. In this case I would size my bets on the lower side trying to play smaller pots. Keep in mind you still base your bets on odds.
Daniel Negreanu claims raises between 1/3 and 2/3’s of the pot are correct. By doing this Daniel keeps the pots small and this fits his style. Daniel plays several hands and gets quite creative in his hand selection. To sum it up Daniel is a professional and can play very effectively after the flop. In most cases he can simply out play his opponent, even when holding the worst hand. Daniel wants to keep the pots small because when he makes a bluff or an information bet it doesn’t cost as much if he runs into a better hand. A counter play for an amateur against a professional is to make bets sized on the larger side. I would say size your bets from ½ to full pot size bets. If you’re as good as Daniel then play along with his size selection, if not then make the professional play for more chips than they want to.
During normal play you should never over bet the pot. Keep your bets in the correct ratio compared with the amount of money in the pot. I’ve seen players go all in on all sorts of hands with very little in the pot. Why put so many chips at stake when the only hand that can call is a hand that beats you. I had a player, the other night, that made this play while holding an over pair to the board. I had flopped a set, so naturally I called and took all his chips. Over betting the pot, for the most part, is a bad idea. Learn to play the game and play correctly.
For example, you have top pair and there is a flush draw on the flop. I would bet about half the pot against a single opponent. I know this contradicts past statements, but let me explain. Your opponent actually has about 40% chance to win the hand. You will have to give him odds on the flop to see where you are. The only way to mess up his odds is to over bet the pot considerably, but this would commit too much money for information. Right, I said information. There is a difference in an information bet and a mess up odds bet. If he has the nut flush draw he will call just about anything. If he calls a ½ pot bet and the third flush card hits, you can get away from the hand without having as much invested. If the flush card does not hit the turn, then it’s time to mess up odds. You opponent now only has about 20% to hit his card. I would make about a ¾ to a pot size bet.
Or let’s say your opponent has a flush draw and an open ended straight draw. He is actually a favorite to win the hand. You cannot bet enough to get him off this hand, so don’t try. Just be grateful if he does not re-raise.
Poker is a complicated game and takes a lot of practice. Learn to read the board and the possible hands your opponent may hold. Play his hand along with yours. Calculate the odds of both hands and bet accordingly.